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 WWIII starts off cold...

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wag
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PostSubject: WWIII starts off cold...   Mon Dec 15, 2014 11:03 pm

Ruble jumps on Russia rate hike, oil pressured

By Lisa Twaronite
TOKYO   Mon Dec 15, 2014 6:56pm EST




1 of 3.  The New York Stock Exchange shortly after the market's opening bell in New York October 31, 2014.
Credit: Reuters/Lucas Jackson
(Reuters) - Oil prices continued to slide on Tuesday, while the ruble jumped against the dollar after Russia sharply hiked its benchmark interest rate to halt a collapse in its currency.

The dour mood kept equities down in Asia, with MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS down 0.1 percent in early trade.

The Russian central bank raised its key interest rate to 17 percent from 10.5 percent, in a move it said was aimed at curbing increased devaluation and inflationary risks.

Sales of oil and gas are Russia's chief source of export revenue, while tougher U.S. sanctions on Moscow, which were set out in a bill passed by U.S. Congress Friday, added to Russia's economic woes.

The ruble RUB=EBS weakened beyond 60 rubles per dollar, after rising above 67.00 at one point on Monday when oil prices fell sharply. The dollar was last up 13.2 percent against the rouble to trade at 65.9 rubles per dollar.

"The bottom line is that oil prices have to stabilize for the rouble to find a bottom but this move is what the central bank should be doing," said Jorge Mariscal, chief investment officer for emerging markets at UBS Wealth Management in New York.

Crude prices remained under pressure on Tuesday after OPEC once again said it will not cut oil output despite fears of massive oversupply, and a UAE official nixed holding an emergency meeting of the producer group to support prices. [O/R]

U.S. crude CLc1 was down 0.3 percent in early Asian trade at $55.73 a barrel, after touching a fresh May 2009 low of $55.02 on Monday.

Risk-aversion pushed the dollar lower against the safe-haven yen. The dollar was down about 0.1 percent on the day at 117.74 yen JPY=, approaching a low of 117.44 yen touched last Thursday, and moving further away from its seven-year high of 121.86 yen set on Dec. 8.

The euro EUR= was last up about 0.1 percent against the dollar at $1.2445.

Investors are now awaiting the U.S. Federal Reserve's final meeting of 2014 on Tuesday and Wednesday with a statement and forecasts expected Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. EST (1900 GMT), followed by Fed chief Janet Yellen's press conference half an hour later.

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PostSubject: Re: WWIII starts off cold...   Mon Dec 15, 2014 11:06 pm

Too close to call at this point.  But my gut says Putin anticipates the moves.

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PostSubject: Re: WWIII starts off cold...   Tue Dec 16, 2014 1:42 am

I guess rate hike a necessity; OTOH while Putin sees need for infrastructure/technology investment, a lot of his finance/tax/business policies are reputed to be even more NeoLib than in Western countries.

Michael Hudson etc claim Russia has wildly regressive tax policy as do some of other post-Soviet places like Latvia. Putin tells Russian workers/pensioners to buck up, they'll eventually get home-grown replacement for frozen US chicken wings (a major import actually). Seems like avg Russian pretty screwed: high-priced/low std of living. China built millions of new apartments, in Russia folks lucky if they still have cramped Soviet-era flat?
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PostSubject: Re: WWIII starts off cold...   Tue Dec 16, 2014 12:31 pm

EB, come on, this is not about technicals or fundamentals, but rather asymmetrical warfare.  

Moscow’s Midnight Interest Rate Shocker Fails to Turn Ruble Around

Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
Well, no-one saw that coming. After Monday’s eye-popping collapse in the ruble, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) last night jacked up its key interest rate by 6.5 percentage points. (You read that right. If you’re just waking up to this, good morning. And yes, it did raise rates by 1 percentage point last week.)

The market response? The ruble is now trading at its weakest level, over 70 against the dollar, suggesting that the move was not enough.

Interventions to push the ruble higher still—a two-pronged approach—seem likely.

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PostSubject: Re: WWIII starts off cold...   Tue Dec 16, 2014 3:34 pm

Seems like Russia's biggest 'sensitivity' is its economy. If you play by jew rules then you lose by their rules ("the stock exchange decides"). If the plunge perpetuates, it will force Russia to take drastic action economically. Can those models like debt free currency, commodity trading in place of monies etc (think WWII Germany) still work when Russia's highest motivation is 'non-isolation'? Seems like the economic battlefield will depend on (and maybe divide along lines of) alliances and co-operations -- but then there is the J-factor (internationally), not so simply 'the U.S.'

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PostSubject: Re: WWIII starts off cold...   Wed Dec 17, 2014 2:22 am

Put ourselves in Putin's place: how to maintain sovereign control of currency in current times where electronic trading makes it very hard to prevent capital flight? Yesterday Donald Trump noted that Russians now mostly absent from buyers for his rent-extraction prestige properties. Russians had been buyers for NYC/Miami condos; I've seen some of 'em--mostly fat-ass pigs, apparently Cryptos.

Trump did a C-SPAN speech to Wash DC Economic Club: while full of his normal bombast & lies it was fairly revealing. Trump says that (Jew) real-estate developers went totally overboard in building ultra-luxe NYC properties & are going to lose big. BTW Trump described his "success" w/Trump Plaza--it only worked thanks to getting zoning permit but he describes that as 'luck' after he had the cojones to buy the property.
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PostSubject: Re: WWIII starts off cold...   Wed Dec 17, 2014 2:53 am

EyeBelieve wrote:
Put ourselves in Putin's place:  how to maintain sovereign control of currency in current times where electronic trading makes it very hard to prevent capital flight?

I've been watching Putin speeches lately, and I noticed that the only point he loses his edge is when he fields questions on the economy. You can tell he's trying to speak the 'international liberal language', while his persona reflects 'nationalist-conservative'. Easier for anyone to rip on American foreign policy than talk Russian economics, but it's of interest how he does single out the 'foreign policy elite' (codeword: jews) when asked to clarify who he's referring to as the main source of America's ills.

He also uses the 'new world order' line somewhere in here, as going along with the eyebrow-raising wording of this Valdai conference on October 24th this year (first link is long, but worth the watch, I suppose -- second link is a highlight)






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PostSubject: Re: WWIII starts off cold...   Wed Dec 17, 2014 3:56 am

Note how media always silences selected foreign speakers. From Hitler to Putin--Americans etc never allowed to hear actual speeches--translation always takes over after 2 seconds. World viewers may not know Russian or whatever language spoken but tones/gestures etc speak volumes. 2nd vid you posted had a rather clumsy translator though that's a hard job at best when dealing with important subtleties.

With current TV tech one could watch important int'l speeches & choose whether to see sub-titles or listen to dubbed translation. But no, not offered.

But OTOH is Putin making an effort to reach Americans disgruntled with current crap gov't? US Congress at all-time popularity low but even on 'Net haven't heard of Putin trying to describe the whole BRICS/infrastructure thing to the Yanquis. & actually it was Russia that adopted the "American System" of sovereign credit for infrastructure/science/tech improvements back before Bolsheviks put a stop to it.
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PostSubject: Re: WWIII starts off cold...   Wed Dec 17, 2014 4:37 am

EyeBelieve wrote:
But OTOH is Putin making an effort to reach Americans disgruntled with current crap gov't?  US Congress at all-time popularity low but even on 'Net haven't heard of Putin trying to describe the whole BRICS/infrastructure thing to the Yanquis.  & actually it was Russia that adopted the "American System" of sovereign credit for infrastructure/science/tech improvements back before Bolsheviks put a stop to it.

Good question. There's fertile ground for Putin to make a distinction between those 'foreign policy elites' (nee jews), the decadence-succumbed American culture-strata, and the nationalist-conservative types (which he could win many over). Would make a difference in preventing the 'cold war' from getting hotter -- but then on the other side of that, some people would say Putin is playing the jew SPECTRE-style role of divide and conquer by not making those lines clear to the world.

Plenty of Americans would Embrace that sort of delineation / separation / distinction, instead of the shame of being overshadowed by the likes of Victoria Nuland (nee Nudelman), Obama, McCain, Hillary, the puppet congress et al

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PostSubject: Re: WWIII starts off cold...   Wed Dec 17, 2014 11:36 am

I think Putin remains focused on the Russian populace audience (his power base).  Might play into the jews hands now were he to appeal to folks outside Russia while the Russian domestic situation is shaky.  We're not there yet by miles, but time is on Putin's side.

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PostSubject: Re: WWIII starts off cold...   Thu Dec 18, 2014 12:02 pm

wag wrote:
I think Putin remains focused on the Russian populace audience (his power base).  Might play into the jews hands now were he to appeal to folks outside Russia while the Russian domestic situation is shaky.  We're not there yet by miles, but time is on Putin's side.

Putin: West is trying to 'defang' the Russian bear

By LAURA MILLS and VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV, Associated Press | December 18, 2014 | Updated: December 18, 2014 7:39am


  • Photo By Pavel Golovkin/AP 
    Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during his annual news conference in Moscow, Russia, Thursday, Dec. 18, 2014. Putin says Russia has sufficient currency reserves and the ruble will recover.



1 of 4









MOSCOW (AP) — President Vladimir Putin vowed Thursday to fix Russia's economic woes within two years by diversifying away from its heavy reliance on oil and gas and voiced confidence that the plummeting ruble will soon recover.
He also promised never to let the West chain or defang his proud nation, evoking the symbolic Russian bear.
Speaking with strong emotion during a live news conference that lasted more than three hours, Putin displayed his traditional defiant stance toward the West, which he insisted is trying to destroy Russia to grab Siberia's great natural resources.
The annual televised production before the holidays is a Putin tradition, and this year he held it from a particularly strong vantage point: An Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll shows his approval rating at a full 80 percent.
Putin accompanied his message with trademark images of Russian pride, with video showing him surrounded by Sochi Olympic athletes, petting a baby tiger and greeting Russian cosmonauts.
In his speech, the man who has led Russia for 15 years sought to soothe market fears that the government could use administrative controls, such as fixing the ruble's rate or obliging exporters to sell hard currency, to help stabilize the battered currency.
Putin said the nation's hard currency reserves are sufficient to keep the economy in stable condition, adding that the Central Bank shouldn't aimlessly "burn" its $419 billion in reserves.
"Our economy will overcome the current situation. How much time will be needed for that? Under the most unfavorable circumstances I think it will take about two years," he said.
Putin also acknowledged that Western economic sanctions over Moscow's actions in Ukraine were just one factor behind Russia's economic crisis, estimating they accounted for roughly 25 to 30 percent of the ruble's troubles. He said a key reason for the currency's fall was Russia's failure to ease its overwhelming dependence on oil and gas exports.
As Putin spoke, the Russian currency traded at 61 rubles to the dollar Thursday — slightly lower than Wednesday night but up 12 percent from the historic low of 80 to the dollar it hit on Tuesday. Russia's benchmark MICEX index rallied by 5.6 percent by mid-afternoon Thursday.
Putin struck a defiant note against the United States and the European Union, saying the sanctions they slapped on Russia after it seized the Black Sea region of Crimea in March were part of a historical campaign to weaken Russia. He accused the West of trying to infringe on Russia's sovereignty, saying the Ukrainian crisis was just a pretext for Western action.
To get his point across, he brought in a famed Russian symbol — the bear.
"Sometimes I think, maybe it would be better for our bear to sit quiet, rather than chasing around the forest after piglets. To sit eating berries and honey instead. Maybe they will leave it in peace," said Putin. "They will not. Because they will always try to put him on a chain, and as soon as they succeed in doing so they tear out his fangs and his claws."
He said by fangs and claws he meant Russia's nuclear weapons. And the West wants to weaken Russia, he said, to win control over its rich natural resources.
"Once they've taken out his claws and his fangs, then the bear is no longer necessary. He'll become a stuffed animal," he said. "The issue is not Crimea, the issue is that we are protecting our sovereignty and our right to exist."
Putin urged a political solution for the crisis in Ukraine, where pro-Russian insurgents have been battling Ukrainian government troops since April, leaving 4,700 people dead.
He said Ukraine must remain one political entity, meaning that its pro-Russian, rebellious eastern regions should not break away. He also suggested the Ukrainian government and rebels should conduct a quick "all for all" prisoners swap before Christmas.
Yet he defended Russia's increased military activities, including stepped-up Russian military flights in the Baltics that NATO says are putting civilian flights at risk, as a necessary response to what he described as aggressive Western action.
"We aren't on the offensive, we aren't attacking anyone, we are only defending our interests," he said.
Russian military aircraft only resumed their regular patrols a few years ago, he noted, claiming that U.S. aircraft have never stopped patrolling since the end of the Cold War and NATO has moved its forces close to Russian borders.
Putin said Russia wants to have normal economic and security ties with the West but wants to cooperate on equal terms.
"I believe that we are right, and our Western partners are wrong" on the Ukrainian crisis, he said.
The European Union on Thursday further beefed up its sanctions against Russia with a ban on investment in Crimea and other economic penalties including measures aimed at keeping tourists away.
Beginning Saturday, Europeans and EU-based companies cannot buy real estate or businesses in Crimea, finance Crimean companies or supply services. EU operators will no longer be allowed to offer tourism services to Crimea's Black Sea beaches or other destinations. Cruise ships owned by an EU-based company or flying an EU member state's flag will also no longer be allowed to call at Sevastopol or other Crimean ports except in an emergency.
Putin said he feels sure that Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko sincerely wants a peaceful solution to the crisis but other forces in Ukraine don't. He urged the Ukrainian government to grant amnesty to the rebels and offer broad rights to eastern residents.
Putin also held out hope for normalizing ties with the West, saying that Russia stands ready to expand its gas supplies to southern Europe using a prospective gas hub on Turkey's border with Greece.
Turning to the ruble's collapse, he said the government should work with exporters to help stabilize the plummeting currency, but added that it shouldn't be done through formal orders.
He said he had talked to the heads of some of Russia's major companies to encourage them to sell more rubles — and said one promised to sell $3 billion to help stabilize the currency.
Asked about if he thinks there is a danger of "palace coup" of some of his lieutenants amid the crisis, he rejected the possibility, saying that he continues to rely on broad public support. He praised the performance of Igor Sechin, his longtime confidant who heads the Rosneft state-controlled oil giant, shrugging off a question about Sechin's hefty paycheck.
Putin toned down his accusations against his foes, who he earlier had branded as Western stooges bent on undermining Russia. Hours before the press conference, a Russian tycoon under house arrest since September, Vladimir Yevtushenkov, was released.
Shares in Sistema, a company that Yevtushenkov controls and manages, shot up more than 140 percent on Moscow's MICEX stock exchange on Putin's words that he hopes that the company will regain its stance on the market.
One of Sistema's most lucrative assets — the oil company Bashneft — was transferred to the government this month, but Putin said money-laundering charges against Yevtushenkov have been dropped.

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PostSubject: Re: WWIII starts off cold...   Fri Dec 19, 2014 1:39 am

CNN did a bit about Putin's press conference--their main complaint was that it was "too long" at 4 hours. They noted the annual press conferences were always multi-hour as if Putin's a blowhard who just likes to hear himself talk. JMSM might have axed why Obama has such a sorry record of doing press conferences. Time was when US Prezzes did regular conferences with all main networks covering live.

CNN played a clip of some old crone Jewess asking some cleverly-baited question. She was skinny, pale & frail-looking. Undoubtedly chosen (heh) to contrast Bully Putin with Helpless Jews. Can't find her name or links now.
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PostSubject: Re: WWIII starts off cold...   Fri Dec 19, 2014 1:59 pm

wag wrote:
Too close to call at this point.  But my gut says Putin anticipates the moves.

Exporting missiles, planes, tanks, guns, bombs, submarines, ships, helicopters, torpedoes and goodwill will require a weaker rouble. Peace.
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PostSubject: Re: WWIII starts off cold...   Fri Dec 19, 2014 4:48 pm

Tet wrote:
wag wrote:
Too close to call at this point.  But my gut says Putin anticipates the moves.

Exporting missiles, planes, tanks, guns, bombs, submarines, ships, helicopters, torpedoes and goodwill will require a weaker rouble. Peace.

Hey Tet, still out there in g-d's country?

So WWIII will go hot when? 

I actually see it going colder, very cold, particularly in the old Eastern Bloc, in the coming two months.

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PostSubject: Re: WWIII starts off cold...   Fri Dec 19, 2014 6:50 pm

[quote="wag"][quote="Tet"]

I agree with you, cold, very cold. Wall Street and London only invade sanction riddled countries that can't fight back. Falling Ruble allows Russia
to export arms to other countries that will allow them to fight back. Russian arms exports skyrocket. Peace
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